--- title: "Provisional rating in chess" url: "https://georgelichess.com/glossary/provisional-rating.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelichess.com/glossary/provisional-rating" last_updated: "2026-11-07" type: "reference" summary: "A provisional rating is an early estimate of strength built from only a few games. US Chess calls a rating established once it rests on more than 25 games." related: ["https://georgelichess.com/glossary/k-factor.md", "https://georgelichess.com/glossary/glicko-rating.md", "https://georgelichess.com/glossary/rating-floor.md", "https://georgelichess.com/glossary/fide-rating.md", "https://georgelichess.com/glossary/rating-list.md", "https://georgelichess.com/glossary/category/tournaments-ratings-titles.md", "https://georgelichess.com/glossary.md"] --- # Provisional rating in chess > **For AI agents:** the complete index of GeorgeLiChess pages is [llms.txt](https://georgelichess.com/llms.txt). Every page is also served as markdown at its URL plus .md. A provisional rating is an early estimate of strength built from only a few games. US Chess calls a rating established once it rests on more than 25 games. A provisional rating is an early estimate of strength built from only a few games, which is allowed to move quickly until enough results exist to make it reliable. When you have played few rated games, a [rating system](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/rating-system.md) knows little about you, so it treats your number as a rough first guess and lets it move fast. Each organization draws the line differently, and the word itself is used less than it once was. FIDE publishes a first rating only after at least five games against rated opponents, which may be pooled from several tournaments within a span of not more than 26 months (Rating Regulations, clause 7.1.4). That initial rating is capped at 2200 (clause 8.2.3), and K stays at 40 until 30 games are completed (clause 8.3.3). US Chess calls a rating established once it rests on more than 25 games. For a player with eight or fewer games it applies a special formula that its published method says used to be called the provisional formula, and an older US Chess FAQ shows a provisional rating as a slash and a game count, such as 1213/16. Glicko-style systems signal the same uncertainty with an explicit rating deviation. Lichess marks a rating provisional with a question mark when its deviation is above 110. Read a provisional number as a range, not a verdict: a rating built on six games can travel a long way once fifty more are played. For related ideas see the entries on [K-factor](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/k-factor.md), [Glicko rating](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/glicko-rating.md) and [rating floor](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/rating-floor.md). Rating and title terms like "Provisional rating" matter once you know your next step, and the [improvement plans by rating band](https://georgelichess.com/improve.md) set out a weekly routine for each rating range. ## Related terms - [K-factor](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/k-factor.md) - [Glicko rating](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/glicko-rating.md) - [Rating floor](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/rating-floor.md) - [FIDE rating](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/fide-rating.md) - [Rating list](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/rating-list.md) ## Guides that go further - [Chess ratings explained](https://georgelichess.com/chess-ratings-explained.md): What a rating measures, how FIDE, Lichess, US Chess and chess.com compute theirs, and why the numbers differ. - [Average chess rating and a good chess rating](https://georgelichess.com/chess-rating-percentiles.md): What share of active Lichess players are rated above 800, 1200, 1500, 1800 or 2000, by time control. - [Chess rating calculator](https://georgelichess.com/tools/rating-calculator.md): Work out how a FIDE rating changes after a run of games. ## Sources - FIDE Handbook B.02 FIDE Rating Regulations, effective 1 March 2024 (Clauses 7.1.4), read 2026-10-21: https://handbook.fide.com/chapter/B022024 - FIDE Handbook B.02 FIDE Rating Regulations, effective 1 March 2024 (Clause 8.3.3), read 2026-10-21: https://handbook.fide.com/chapter/B022024 - US Chess, The US Chess Rating System (Glickman and Doan), dated 6 April 2026 (Sections 1 and 4), read 2026-10-21: https://new.uschess.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/us_chess_rating_system_specs-2026-04-06.pdf - US Chess FAQ, "I just played in my first rated event, am I rated now?" (FAQ answer on a first rated event), read 2026-10-21: https://new.uschess.org/faq - Lichess FAQ (FAQ answer on ratings), read 2026-10-21: https://lichess.org/faq [Book your first lesson](https://georgelichess.com/book.md) and George Li reviews your games and builds a study plan around them. Questions about lessons: write to hello@georgelichess.com. ## Related - [K-factor in chess](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/k-factor.md) - [Glicko rating in chess](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/glicko-rating.md) - [Rating floor in chess](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/rating-floor.md) - [FIDE rating in chess](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/fide-rating.md) - [Rating list in chess](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/rating-list.md) - [Chess terms: Tournaments, ratings and titles](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/category/tournaments-ratings-titles.md) - [Chess terms glossary: plain definitions](https://georgelichess.com/glossary.md)