---
title: "Winning chances in chess"
url: "https://georgelichess.com/glossary/winning-chances.md"
canonical_url: "https://georgelichess.com/glossary/winning-chances"
last_updated: "2026-11-07"
type: "reference"
summary: "Winning chances are an estimate of how likely each side is to win from a position. An engine's evaluation, such as plus two, is not a probability."
related: ["https://georgelichess.com/glossary/evaluation.md", "https://georgelichess.com/glossary/centipawn.md", "https://georgelichess.com/glossary/evaluation-bar.md", "https://georgelichess.com/glossary/missed-win.md", "https://georgelichess.com/glossary/game-review.md", "https://georgelichess.com/glossary/category/computer-chess.md", "https://georgelichess.com/glossary.md"]
---

# Winning chances in chess

> **For AI agents:** the complete index of GeorgeLiChess pages is [llms.txt](https://georgelichess.com/llms.txt). Every page is also served as markdown at its URL plus .md.

Winning chances are an estimate of how likely each side is to win from a position. An engine's evaluation, such as plus two, is not a probability.

Winning chances are an estimate of how likely each side is to win from a position, often converted from the engine's evaluation into a percentage so that the same advantage reads differently at different levels.

An [engine's](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/chess-engine.md) [evaluation](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/evaluation.md), such as plus two, is not a probability. Winning chances try to translate it into one. The idea is that the same material edge matters differently depending on the position and the players: a pawn up in a sharp middlegame between club players is worth less in practice than a pawn up in a clean [endgame](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/endgame.md). Tools differ in how they make the conversion, and some use ratings of the players in the formula, so two programs can show different percentages for the same position. Winning chances also explain why a large drop in the raw evaluation sometimes barely changes the percentage: a position that is already totally winning does not become more winning. The common [mistake](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/mistake.md) is reading the percentage as a guarantee. Practical factors such as time, complexity and nerves still decide real games. A good habit is to use winning chances to judge whether a move truly mattered. If it changed the percentage very little, it was probably not the lesson of that game.

Also called: win probability.

It sits close to [Missed win](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/missed-win.md). A missed win is a game review label for a move that fails to take a clearly winning continuation, so a decisive advantage shrinks to something much smaller or disappears entirely.

Computer terms such as "Winning chances" are most useful next to a coach who reads your games with you, which is how a [first lesson](https://georgelichess.com/book/first-lesson.md) with George Li works.

## Related terms

- [Evaluation](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/evaluation.md)
- [Centipawn](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/centipawn.md)
- [Evaluation bar](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/evaluation-bar.md)
- [Missed win](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/missed-win.md)
- [Game review](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/game-review.md)

## Guides that go further

- [How to choose a chess coach](https://georgelichess.com/how-to-choose-a-chess-coach.md): What to decide first, the questions to ask, what a first lesson should show and the red flags to avoid.
- [How much does chess coaching cost?](https://georgelichess.com/chess-coaching-cost.md): Published rates for private, group and subscription chess coaching, with the source and the date of each.
- [The first lesson](https://georgelichess.com/book/first-lesson.md): A game review, a read on your level and a written study plan from George Li.

[Book your first lesson](https://georgelichess.com/book.md) and George Li reviews your games and builds a study plan around them. Questions about lessons: write to hello@georgelichess.com.

## Related

- [Evaluation in chess](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/evaluation.md)
- [Centipawn in chess](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/centipawn.md)
- [Evaluation bar in chess](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/evaluation-bar.md)
- [Missed win in chess](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/missed-win.md)
- [Game review in chess](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/game-review.md)
- [Chess terms: Computer chess and analysis](https://georgelichess.com/glossary/category/computer-chess.md)
- [Chess terms glossary: plain definitions](https://georgelichess.com/glossary.md)